Summary of Isolated SAV-Replacement, SMV-Replacement, SMV-Repair Model based on California Inpatient Discharge Data, 2020-2021
Outcome: MACCE (Multiple Adverse Cardiovascular and Cerebral Events)
This outcome is determined based on the occurrence of 1 or more of the following events after the index surgery or a subsequent inpatient-readmission connected through the surgery admission via acute transfer: All events are weighted equally.
Model Statistics:
Number of Observations: 7,386
% of Observations with Outcome: 4.8%
C-statistic: 0.786
Pseudo-R2: 16.4
Hosmer-Lemeshow P-Value: 0.332
Model Details:
Risk Factor N Cases % Events Estimate Standard Error Wald Chi2 P-value Odds Ratio (OR) Lower 95% CL for OR Upper 95% CL for OR
Intercept-3.40.2225.00.000
Age at Admission18-<50 1,0573.8-0.50.25.10.0240.60.40.9
50-<555883.1-0.60.33.40.0630.60.31.0
55-<609563.4-0.30.22.10.1470.70.41.1
60-<651,1804.60.10.20.20.6451.10.71.6
65-<701,2584.4Reference
70-<751,1385.80.30.21.90.1671.30.91.9
75-<807985.50.20.20.60.4321.20.81.8
80 or older4119.60.80.211.90.0012.21.43.5
Patient SexMale 4,4523.8Reference
Female2,9346.20.40.111.10.0011.51.21.9
Patient RaceWhite 4,2544.1Reference
Non-White3,1325.70.20.13.70.0551.31.01.6
Type of Valve ProcedureSAV-Replacement Only 3,0573.6Reference
SMV-Replacement Only1,8167.40.50.29.90.0021.61.22.2
SMV-Repair Only1,7791.9-0.30.21.70.1920.80.51.2
Multiple Valves including SAV-Replacement, SMV-Replacement/Repair73410.10.70.216.90.0002.11.53.0
Underweight / Weight Loss48415.40.80.227.30.0002.31.73.2
Acute MI Present at Unscheduled Admission15215.71.20.321.50.0003.42.05.8
Aortic/Mitral Valve Disease/Stenosis/Insufficiency6,2333.9-0.90.135.40.0000.40.30.6
Atrial Fibrillation and Flutter2,6635.4-0.10.10.70.3900.90.71.2
Cardiogenic Shock17217.91.00.217.60.0002.81.74.4
Cardiomyopathy6533.9-0.50.24.40.0360.60.41.0
Coronary Artery Disease2,0954.0-0.40.19.10.0030.70.50.9
Heart Failure3,6376.30.20.11.90.1641.20.91.6
Chronic Lung Disease5047.40.40.23.40.0651.41.02.1
Cerebrovascular Disease4887.7-0.10.20.10.7050.90.61.4
Diabetes1,7746.10.20.11.60.2011.20.91.5
Infectious Endocarditis88011.40.70.222.40.0002.11.52.9
Pre-Op Intra-Aortic Balloon Pump508.20.20.60.10.7101.30.44.2
Prior CABG/Valve Surgery4835.50.30.21.40.2401.30.82.0
Peripheral Vascular Disease7926.00.20.21.10.2881.20.91.7
Renal Failure1,5647.90.50.113.50.0001.61.22.1
Same Day Tricuspid Valve8369.90.60.214.70.0001.81.32.4
Status of Procedure Urgent496.20.10.70.00.8801.10.34.5
Notes:
If a patient had more than one surgery event of the same type on different dates during the index admission, only the surgery on the earliest date is included for fitting the model.
CL: Confidence Limit
CABG: Coronary Artery Bypass Graft
SAV-Replacement: Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement
SMV-Replacement: Surgical Mitral Valve Replacement
SMV-Repair: Surgical Mitral Valve Repair