Summary of TAVR Model based on California Inpatient Discharge Data, 2020-2021
Outcome: MACCE-90 (Multiple Adverse Cardiovascular and Cerebral Events within 90 Days of surgery)
This outcome is determined based on the occurrence of 1 or more of the following events within 90 days of the surgery date: All events are weighted equally.
Only patients are included who did not leave against medical advice, who were residents of California at the time of the surgery, and who had surgery prior to 2021-10-02.
Model Statistics:
Number of Observations: 13,170
% of Observations with Outcome: 5.9%
C-statistic: 0.659
Pseudo-R2: 5.3
Hosmer-Lemeshow P-Value: 0.213
Model Details:
Risk Factor N Cases % Events Estimate Standard Error Wald Chi2 P-value Odds Ratio (OR) Lower 95% CL for OR Upper 95% CL for OR
Intercept-3.30.2203.40.000
Age at Admission18-<60 3447.10.00.20.00.9161.00.61.7
60-<654516.90.10.20.20.6621.10.71.7
65-<701,0755.4-0.20.21.60.2110.80.61.1
70-<752,0564.5-0.40.18.20.0040.70.50.9
75-<802,5885.4-0.20.12.50.1130.80.61.0
80-<852,8595.8-0.20.11.70.1870.90.71.1
85-<902,3437.0Reference
90-<951,2047.50.00.10.00.9051.00.81.3
95 or older2507.40.00.30.00.8701.00.61.6
Patient SexMale 7,6255.7Reference
Female5,5456.30.10.13.00.0841.11.01.3
Patient RaceWhite 9,5395.6Reference
Non-White3,6316.80.20.16.10.0131.21.01.5
Underweight / Weight Loss34018.41.10.251.40.0003.12.34.1
Acute MI Present at Unscheduled Admission23215.30.60.29.90.0021.91.32.8
Aortic/Mitral Valve Disease/Stenosis/Insufficiency12,6325.9-0.10.20.30.5700.90.61.3
Atrial Fibrillation and Flutter4,4437.30.30.113.30.0001.31.11.6
Cardiogenic Shock12819.80.90.212.80.0002.41.53.9
Cardiomyopathy7748.30.20.11.90.1711.20.91.6
Coronary Artery Disease7,9546.40.10.12.90.0911.21.01.4
Heart Failure8,7476.70.20.14.40.0361.21.01.5
Chronic Lung Disease1,6926.10.00.10.10.7491.00.81.2
Cerebrovascular Disease9639.50.50.119.70.0001.71.42.2
Diabetes4,7146.40.10.11.00.3091.10.91.3
Pre-Op Intra-Aortic Balloon Pump2,3808.30.40.121.60.0001.51.31.8
Prior CABG/Valve Surgery1,6635.3-0.20.12.80.0930.80.61.0
Peripheral Vascular Disease2,5576.90.10.12.40.1221.21.01.4
Renal Failure4,5207.50.30.113.10.0001.31.11.6
Status of Procedure Urgent8611.20.60.43.00.0811.90.93.9
Notes:
If a patient had more than one surgery event of the same type on different dates during the index admission, only the surgery on the earliest date is included for fitting the model.
CL: Confidence Limit
CABG: Coronary Artery Bypass Graft
TAVR: Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement