Summary of TAVR Model based on California Inpatient Discharge Data, 2020-2021
Outcome: Mortality
Mortality includes death during the surgery admission, death during a connected subsequent acute inpatient admission, or death at an emergency department encounter or inpatient re-admission within 30 days of the index surgery Only patients are included who did not leave against medical advice after the surgery admission and who were residents of California at the time of the surgery.
Model Statistics:
Number of Observations: 14,534
% of Observations with Outcome: 1.4%
C-statistic: 0.719
Pseudo-R2: 8.0
Hosmer-Lemeshow P-Value: 0.625
Model Details:
Risk Factor N Cases % Events Estimate Standard Error Wald Chi2 P-value Odds Ratio (OR) Lower 95% CL for OR Upper 95% CL for OR
Intercept-4.80.4125.20.000
Age at Admission18-<60 3891.4-0.40.50.50.4700.70.31.9
60-<654851.3-0.10.50.10.7700.90.42.1
65-<701,1891.60.10.30.10.7631.10.62.0
70-<752,2550.9-0.50.32.70.1020.60.41.1
75-<802,8691.1-0.20.30.60.4320.80.51.3
80-<853,1451.50.10.20.10.8021.10.71.6
85-<902,5971.6Reference
90-<951,3181.90.20.30.40.5511.20.72.0
95 or older2871.2-0.50.60.60.4390.60.22.1
Patient SexMale 8,4311.2Reference
Female6,1031.60.20.22.10.1511.20.91.7
Patient RaceWhite 10,5221.1Reference
Non-White4,0122.00.60.214.40.0001.81.32.5
Underweight / Weight Loss3738.21.70.256.70.0005.33.48.2
Acute MI Present at Unscheduled Admission2575.50.90.38.00.0052.51.34.6
Aortic/Mitral Valve Disease/Stenosis/Insufficiency13,9461.4-0.30.30.60.4530.80.41.5
Atrial Fibrillation and Flutter4,9201.70.30.22.70.1021.31.01.8
Cardiogenic Shock1408.71.10.49.40.0023.01.55.9
Cardiomyopathy8402.10.20.30.60.4421.20.72.1
Coronary Artery Disease8,7531.3-0.10.20.70.3970.90.61.2
Heart Failure9,6581.60.20.21.50.2281.30.91.8
Chronic Lung Disease1,8741.3-0.20.20.50.4750.80.51.3
Cerebrovascular Disease1,0401.1-0.40.31.40.2410.70.41.3
Diabetes5,2171.4-0.10.20.40.5240.90.71.2
Pre-Op Intra-Aortic Balloon Pump2,6211.60.20.21.60.2071.30.91.8
Prior CABG/Valve Surgery1,8080.9-0.40.32.20.1410.70.41.1
Peripheral Vascular Disease2,8221.60.20.21.50.2201.20.91.8
Renal Failure4,9752.10.60.213.10.0001.81.32.4
Status of Procedure Urgent954.41.10.54.60.0323.11.18.9
Notes:
If a patient had more than one surgery event of the same type on different dates during the index admission, only the surgery on the earliest date is included for fitting the model.
CL: Confidence Limit
CABG: Coronary Artery Bypass Graft
TAVR: Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement