Summary of Isolated SAV-Replacement, SMV-Replacement, SMV-Repair Model based on California Inpatient Discharge Data, 2020-2021
Outcome: MACCE-90 (Multiple Adverse Cardiovascular and Cerebral Events within 90 Days of surgery)
This outcome is determined based on the occurrence of 1 or more of the following events within 90 days of the surgery date: All events are weighted equally.
Only patients are included who did not leave against medical advice, who were residents of California at the time of the surgery, and who had surgery prior to 2021-10-02.
Model Statistics:
Number of Observations: 6,304
% of Observations with Outcome: 7.0%
C-statistic: 0.770
Pseudo-R2: 16.0
Hosmer-Lemeshow P-Value: 0.045
Model Details:
Risk Factor N Cases % Events Estimate Standard Error Wald Chi2 P-value Odds Ratio (OR) Lower 95% CL for OR Upper 95% CL for OR
Intercept-3.20.2213.30.000
Age at Admission18-<50 8836.3-0.30.21.80.1790.70.51.1
50-<554985.8-0.20.30.70.4160.80.51.3
55-<608085.0-0.40.23.30.0690.70.41.0
60-<651,0236.70.00.20.00.8991.00.71.4
65-<701,0666.4Reference
70-<759757.70.20.20.60.4211.20.81.7
75-<806937.30.00.20.00.9161.00.71.5
80 or older35814.20.70.211.40.0012.11.43.2
Patient SexMale 3,7955.9Reference
Female2,5098.60.40.19.90.0021.41.11.8
Patient RaceWhite 3,6255.7Reference
Non-White2,6798.60.40.112.00.0011.51.21.9
Type of Valve ProcedureSAV-Replacement Only 2,6565.3Reference
SMV-Replacement Only1,54110.70.50.114.00.0001.71.32.3
SMV-Repair Only1,4853.2-0.20.21.10.2950.80.61.2
Multiple Valves including SAV-Replacement, SMV-Replacement/Repair62213.90.80.223.10.0002.31.63.2
Underweight / Weight Loss40920.70.80.226.10.0002.21.63.0
Acute MI Present at Unscheduled Admission13019.91.10.316.50.0002.91.74.9
Aortic/Mitral Valve Disease/Stenosis/Insufficiency5,3206.1-0.70.125.00.0000.50.40.7
Atrial Fibrillation and Flutter2,2938.20.10.10.20.6771.10.81.3
Cardiogenic Shock14819.30.80.310.40.0012.31.43.8
Cardiomyopathy5677.6-0.10.20.20.6750.90.61.3
Coronary Artery Disease1,8006.5-0.20.12.10.1480.80.61.1
Heart Failure3,1009.10.20.12.30.1321.20.91.5
Chronic Lung Disease44410.30.30.23.60.0581.41.02.0
Cerebrovascular Disease41911.60.00.20.10.8161.00.71.5
Diabetes1,5418.70.10.11.10.2921.10.91.5
Infectious Endocarditis74415.40.70.125.30.0002.11.62.8
Pre-Op Intra-Aortic Balloon Pump3910.80.20.60.10.7091.30.44.2
Prior CABG/Valve Surgery4118.60.30.22.40.1251.40.92.0
Peripheral Vascular Disease6897.90.10.20.20.6961.10.81.5
Renal Failure1,32611.00.40.111.30.0011.51.21.9
Same Day Tricuspid Valve70612.50.30.24.80.0281.41.01.9
Status of Procedure Urgent435.6-0.70.80.80.3790.50.12.5
Notes:
If a patient had more than one surgery event of the same type on different dates during the index admission, only the surgery on the earliest date is included for fitting the model.
CL: Confidence Limit
CABG: Coronary Artery Bypass Graft
SAV-Replacement: Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement
SMV-Replacement: Surgical Mitral Valve Replacement
SMV-Repair: Surgical Mitral Valve Repair