Summary of Isolated CABG Model based on California Inpatient Discharge Data, 2020-2021
Outcome: MACCE-90 (Multiple Adverse Cardiovascular and Cerebral Events within 90 Days of surgery)
This outcome is determined based on the occurrence of 1 or more of the following events within 90 days of the surgery date: All events are weighted equally.
Only patients are included who did not leave against medical advice, who were residents of California at the time of the surgery, and who had surgery prior to 2021-10-02.
Model Statistics:
Number of Observations: 19,451
% of Observations with Outcome: 7.4%
C-statistic: 0.703
Pseudo-R2: 9.6
Hosmer-Lemeshow P-Value: 0.658
Model Details:
Risk Factor N Cases % Events Estimate Standard Error Wald Chi2 P-value Odds Ratio (OR) Lower 95% CL for OR Upper 95% CL for OR
Intercept-3.50.11285.20.000
Age at Admission18-<50 1,1125.9-0.10.20.70.4110.90.61.2
50-<551,3957.20.20.12.00.1591.20.91.6
55-<602,4186.60.00.10.00.9061.00.81.3
60-<653,2536.2-0.10.10.40.5310.90.81.2
65-<703,6746.6Reference
70-<753,5867.60.10.11.20.2661.10.91.3
75-<802,5518.70.20.14.50.0341.21.01.5
80 or older1,46212.50.50.123.30.0001.71.42.1
Patient SexMale 15,2446.7Reference
Female4,20710.10.30.122.20.0001.41.21.6
Patient RaceWhite 9,5766.6Reference
Non-White9,8758.20.20.116.20.0001.31.11.4
Underweight / Weight Loss59722.21.00.183.30.0002.82.23.4
Acute MI Present at Scheduled Admission7487.20.10.20.10.7401.10.81.4
Acute MI Present at Unscheduled Admission7,6029.00.20.16.40.0111.21.01.3
Aortic/Mitral Valve Disease/Stenosis/Insufficiency2,8179.30.10.11.00.3111.10.91.3
Atrial Fibrillation and Flutter3,1389.20.10.10.90.3481.10.91.2
Cardiogenic Shock68017.10.70.130.30.0001.91.52.4
Cardiomyopathy85010.70.10.10.50.4681.10.91.4
Heart Failure6,84311.60.70.1117.60.0002.01.82.3
HX Sudden Cardiac Arrest (Begin 2007)1045.2-0.60.51.40.2380.60.21.4
Chronic Lung Disease1,83110.30.20.16.80.0091.31.11.5
Cerebrovascular Disease1,8409.60.20.16.90.0091.31.11.5
Diabetes10,9177.8-0.10.10.90.3340.90.81.1
Dialysis6715.20.30.40.50.4581.30.62.6
Number of GraftsOne 93516.31.00.1101.20.0002.82.33.4
Two3,3848.40.20.19.90.0021.31.11.5
Three or More15,1326.7Reference
PCI prior to Admission3,4695.7-0.20.18.50.0040.80.70.9
Prior PCI on same Day as Surgery17917.30.30.21.40.2381.30.82.1
Pre-Op Intra-Aortic Balloon Pump81015.40.70.129.90.0002.01.62.6
Prior CABG/Valve Surgery6047.0-0.20.21.30.2590.80.61.2
Peripheral Vascular Disease2,8778.50.00.10.20.6611.00.91.2
Renal Failure5,41010.30.30.119.70.0001.31.21.5
Status of Procedure Urgent40913.70.00.20.00.9081.00.71.5
Notes:
If a patient had more than one surgery event of the same type on different dates during the index admission, only the surgery on the earliest date is included for fitting the model.
CL: Confidence Limit
CABG: Coronary Artery Bypass Graft
PCI: Percutaneous Coronary Intervention